As of mid-2025, data on African economies show massive changes from the last 5 years. New projections towards 2030 have emerged, and rising economies could step up if properly managed and growth is sustained.
The Current State of Africa’s Biggest Economies
Key updated facts include a forecast by the African Development Bank (AfDB) shows a 3.9% growth for Africa in 2025, up from around 3.3% in 2024.
It also forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will grow similarly around that rate; non-oil sectors are becoming more important.
Nigeria has recalculated its GDP, which increased its size by about 30%, incorporating sectors like digital services and informal work. The country’s Nigeria’s 2025 growth rate is projected by its central bank at about 4.17%.
Also, the recent nominal GDPs of major African economies per IMF / related sources show South Africa is at about $410.34b, Egypt $347.34b, Algeria $268.89b and Nigeria $188.27b.
*These projections assume nominal growth, moderate inflation, continuation of current trends, no major shocks (commodity crashes, political instability, global recession, etc.). They also assume currencies, exchange rates stay somewhat stable but do affect nominal USD values.
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South Africa is now projected to be Africa’s largest economy in nominal GDP in 2025 (per IMF) rather than Nigeria. Growth rates assumed for Nigeria in 2020 show 2.1% and South Africa, 1.5% are much more pessimistic than current forecasts. Many economies are projected to grow faster.
Using the updated growth rates, trends, and IMF / AfDB expectations, the rough projections for some top economies by 2030 look different. Many countries are likely to shift rankings. These are speculative and depend heavily on continuation of reforms, stability, and global commodity prices.
By 2030, South Africa’s recent annual growth forecast is at 1-2% and is projected at $550-650 billion.
Similarly, Egypt’s recent annual growth forecast, which is at 3-4%, is projected at $500-700 billion.
With the recent statistical rebasing + reforms, growth of about 4% or more is possible for Nigeria if inflation, foreign exchange, infrastructure, and governance are managed. Growth is forcasted at about projected at $500-700 billion.
Algeria depends heavily on oil, and a growth of $250-400 billion or lower is projected if volatility persists.
Morocco & Kenya benefit from tourism, services, and non-oil industry growth and are seeing moderate growth. Bothe economies are projected at $250-400 billion.
Ghana, Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire could move up into the top 10 more firmly, possibly challenging mid-tier economies. These are among the rising economies, and if growth is sustained, they could pull up. They are projected to reach about $150-250 billion by 2030.
